Einsteins's Theory Of Muskytivity BY JOEL TINKER (Top Tackle Guide Service) (Posted Jan. 4, 2000) If you spend any time at all in the boat with fishing partners who are not afraid to let their imaginations run, some pretty interesting conversations can take place. When musky fishing gets slow the long hours are often passed with what if' s, have you ever wondered about's, and what do you think of's. I had one such day in the boat a couple of seasons back. A friend and I had fished hard for three days without much to show for it and conversation started to wander to those topics that skirt the edge of reality. Often time subjects are raised and questions are asked more to pass time and keep one mentally alert than to come to definitive answers about anything. This conversation revolved around the idea that anything in the human experience can be explained by the use of a mathematical formula. I told you that the fishing had been slow! While tossing 5oz jerkbaits, talk of math being used to explain anything within man's comprehension eventually got around to fishing, more specifically, musky fishing. Certainly, this was not a new concept. I have seen attempts by fishing magazines, organizations, and professionals to do this very thing. Often these attempts were general in nature giving the reader some basic ABC's of fishing, but they usually did not shed much light on any great fishing insights. After some lengthy discussion, my fishing partner and I realized that we also would have nothing worthwhile in terms of any mathematical answers for the musky fishing world. The subject was just too vast and had way too many variables. To explain how and why a musky would or should be caught in a particular place or at a particular time could not, we felt, be done mathematically. The day was not a total loss, we did make the realization that not every human experience can be reduced to a mathematical equation, and thus, an answer. This whole discussion never left my mind, however. While I could see the futility of a math formula to explain the overall dynamics of musky fishing, I always had this feeling that there was some way to explain some of the specifics. On a bone-chilling fall day, I started to give some thought to this issue again, more so for survival than anything else; it was so cold I had to get my mind on something to pass time while I jigged or I would not last the day. I musky fish most of the time with the goal being to catch big (over 30#’s) fish. I think this is true of most musky people, it’s just that our bench marks may vary from one to another. Big fish are ALWAYS on the forefront of my mind in the fall, so my thinking was focused there. It dawned on me that maybe I couldn't figure out an equation for muskies in general, but I could come up with a formula to give folks an idea of what it takes to boat fish over the 30# mark. Noticed that I did not say, "How to catch a fish over 30#'s", but rather, "What it takes to catch a fish over 30#'s." This distinction is important. The factors that have to come together to catch a 30# fish are greater and more difficult to ascertain than the mere knowledge of how to do it. I think this is one point of frustration that I see in musky fishermen, they know that they have a proven method for catching big fish, but it still does not happen. You will see that there are other pieces to the puzzle. The subject has come up many times over the years in my boat as I fish with people that are looking to break that 30# barrier. After doing this crazy sport for some time now, it was easier to figure out a mathematical equation than I had first thought it would be. When I broke it down to its simplest elements the answer was obvious. There are three factors (notice the sophisticated math lingo) that make up the equation. The first is knowledge, the second is time, and the third is luck. I will try to explain why all of these factors come into play, and in doing so, I hope to help others understand what this quest for 30# fish entails. Here is the formula in its simplest form. ( )5K + ( )5T + or - ( )L = 55 is a 30# fish. K is knowledge, T is time, L is luck. Notice that [K] and [T] are weighted. This is represented by ( ), a weight of one to ten has to be inserted into these spots because as one factor becomes stronger the other can be weaker to still produce the same result, a 30# fish. The [L] factor is also weighted, but it is weighted as a -1 thru -5 for bad luck or a +1 to +5 for good luck. This reflects reality in that we can be helped in our fishing by good or bad luck. Also, you will see that each factor has a fixed weight in comparison to the others. This is needed because all three factors are not equal to each other as they stand on their own. This will become clearer as I explain the logic behind using these factors and their relationship to each other. After the formula is calculated, an output of at least 55 has to be achieved to reach a combination of factors that will make boating that coveted 30# fish fall within the realm of possibility. As the output for the equation increases from 55 it is demonstrating an increase in the odds of boating the fish. Even a score of 70+ does not mean that a 30#er is going to be boated, it just means that all the factors are in place for it to happen. In fishing we all know there are NO guarantees. What do I mean when I say knowledge? Well, I think most of us would think we are talking about all the biological information that we need to know about our quarry, the musky. Surely, all that type of information would have to be included, but there is much, much more that needs to be added. Think of all the stuff we need to know about equipment and gear, boats and boat control, lures and how to use them, maintenance of all our gear, weather, moon phases, baitfish, water temps, barometer movements, trolling, casting, jigging, live bait; it just goes on and on. It becomes clear when you use the formula that we can never afford to stop learning about our sport. We have to always be trying to improve how we do it and constantly be looking for new ways to do it better. What do I mean by time? I'm simply talking about the amount of time on the water. At the extreme end a ten would be the person who could fish every day of the season and a zero would be someone who could not fish at all. A five would not represent fishing half the season, but rather fishing the same amount as the average fisherman. What do I mean by luck? This is the most vague of all the factors. It has to be here because there is always an uncontrollable factor to fishing: weather is a prime example. It could also be the equipment failure at just the wrong time, it could be being in just the right place at just the right time, it could be not hitting that deer in the wee hours of the morning which would knock your truck out of commission for a month of the season while it is in the shop for repairs. I can't tell you how many times I've listened to someone tell me a big fish story only to realize that there was some small twist of fate or luck involved in the catch. I can relate to that with my first 30# fish and my biggest, a 39# fish. Both had a bit of luck involved. But that is stuff for another article. You will notice that the luck factor can be positive or negative. This reflects reality in that you can have good or bad luck. Let me say one more thing about the formula before we move on. This formula works in the waters that I fish. I believe it fairly represents the expectations of what is needed to boat 30# class fish in my backyard. It is very possible that this equation is useless to someone outside my area. Instead of depicting what is needed to catch 30# fish in another area it may be a better representation of what is needed to catch 40# fish. In the waters that I fish I know that this is not a 40# equation. It would have to look quit different. So how does one put the formula to work? I think the easiest way is to just run through some examples and see how they play out. Suppose that we have someone who has all the musky fishing knowledge [k] that is possible, but has no time to fish. Obviously, they could not catch a 30# fish if they never wet a line. The formula would look like this: (10)5K+(0)5T+(O)L=50 or no 30# fish. Now let us suppose that we have someone that has all the time in the world to fish, but they do not have a clue what they are doing. They know nothing about musky fishing. Their formula would look like this: (0)5K+(10)5T+/-(O)L=50 or no 30# fish. What if we had this same person learn the basics of musky fishing or the specifics of one aspect or method of the sport. Lets say that we teach this person how to flat line troll with a couple of baits at a specific depth, surely a small part of musky knowledge. Their formula would took like this: (1)5K+(10)5T+/-(O)L=55 or a small chance to boat a 30# fish. They now have all the time in the world to fish, but we have given them one method to use the entire time. At some time during the season that method should pay dividends to this individual. We can start to see the relationship between knowledge and time. As our knowledge increases the amount of time we have to spend on the water can start to decrease. What if we had a fisherman who had average knowledge and average time to spend on the water, should they be able to expect to catch a 30# fish? (5)5K+(5)5T+/-(O)L=50 or no 30# fish. A person with average knowledge and average time on the water does not have a very good chance of boating that 30# fish. However, if they could have the luck factor come into play their chances could improve: (5)5K+(5)5T+(5)L=55 or a small chance at a 30# fish. Lets look at someone who has lots of knowledge and lots of time but not very good luck: (7)5K+(8)5T-(5)L=70 or a good chance at a nice fish. What this shows is that knowledge and time on the water can overcome bad or negative luck. Doing the right things at the right times go a long way towards putting big fish in the boat. So is there anything that is truly of value that can come out of this little mind game that we have been playing? I guess for me as a guide it is a tool to demonstrate to people who have ill conceived expectations of the probability of boating a big fish. If you think that you are going to catch a 30# fish by going north a week out of the year the odds are against you. You may have all the knowledge, but you lack the time on the water and will need all the luck on your side to do it, even than the odds are slim. If you don't have all the knowledge the odds really start to stack up against you. The formula also shows the value of a guide. One can immediately increase the [K] factor with the hiring of a guide. It increases for the day on the water that you are out with the guide and each day after that if you paid attention to what was taught. I've had people in my life who have literally shaved years of learning off the books for me. To them I am forever grateful. This is all I can do as a guide. If I save someone years of learning, that is the key for them. This allows their [K] factor to increase so that their limited fishing time is spent with a higher formula output number. If this lets them experience the thrills in this sport that I have enjoyed than it is all worth it. And if we should both be so lucky as to be in the boat where my [K] combines with your [T] and we both have a little [L] that day, than we have maximized our chances of boating that fish of 30#'s. When all these things come together, those are good days indeed! That is why we fish.